The day after New Hampshire sees Hillary not down, but a winner, if only barely. What a surprise to all the pundits that were speculating she might be on her way out. There is not a chance of that. The closeness will almost certainly put the Clinton machine is in a full court press mode, however. Will they really take the gloves off? It will be interesting. This could be a long, drawn out process for the Democrats.
McCain's comeback is kind of refreshing. After the disaster with the immigration bill this summer, McCain hit rock bottom, losing suport and out of money. That he could come back as well as he has is a real compliment to him. Beating Romney in his neighborhood also put a brake on Romney's campaign. If McCain beats Romney in Michigan, Romney will really be in a struggle.
Huck came in third and remains viable heading into states where he should be stronger. He is so weak on policy, it must be the religious folks that are keeping him in it. I have said it before, but he seems like Bill Clinton without the sleaze. We know what happened to Bill.
Giulani, of course, has not yet begun to fight. How he will fare is a real question. Thompson is barely hanging on. A good showing in S. Carolina is imperative for him.
The big losers in New Hampshire: the Pollsters. They totally and badly missed on the Hillary/Obama race. The polling situation might be very interesting to follow throughout the campaign. Maybe more on that some other time.
The final analysis post-New Hampshire: this is going to be a long slog to the nomination for candidates in both parties, and for us poor watchers. Stay tuned.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Monday, January 7, 2008
Hillary down?
Here we go again with more post-Iowa analysis. Hillary's third place showing has folks from all over the spectrum writing her political obituary.
Drudge, this morning, headlines "TALK OF HILLARY EXIT ENGULFS CAMPAIGN !"
Rasmussen has Hillary ahead of Obama only 33%-29%, with Hillary down 8 points and Obama up 7 in a week's time.
CBSNEWS poll shows Obama 35%, Hillary 29% in New Hampshire.
Peter Wehner over at Contentions, posts the obit:
".....After she loses, Hillary Clinton will remain in the Senate, of course, and Bill Clinton will continue to make millions through his public speeches. They will not completely disappear from the national scene. But their days as a Democratic dynasty, and their center-stage role in American politics, are about to end."
(via PowerLine)
Is Hillary about done? No. She undoubtedly is a very polarizing person, and about as many dislike her as like her, but she has too much going for her to bow out at the first sign of trouble. I have to agree with Dick Morris (shudder!). His position is that she can withstand a few early primary losses because her strength lies in the larger states that vote later. For those that want this to be a quick process I can only tell you to get ready for one that is longer and more drawn out than recent elections have been.
What we will probably see is the Clintons going into full battle mode. The gloves will come off (pardon the metaphors), and we will begin to learn more about Obama than we really want to know. That is not all that bad. We actually know little about him.
This election year will give all of the pundits and press the opportunity to pontificate. But I don't think they are going to be able to stampede either party into naming a winner early. Democrats will surely make it into the Spring; Republicans may go all the way to the convention. It should be an interesting but frightening ride.
UPDATE: Riehl World View has similar thoughts:
"....The Clinton freight train rumbles on. If there's any real dirt, they'll chew, chew Obama up in the two weeks between NH and SC and we'll have a different race by Super Tuesday on February 5th......"
Go to the site.
Drudge, this morning, headlines "TALK OF HILLARY EXIT ENGULFS CAMPAIGN !"
Rasmussen has Hillary ahead of Obama only 33%-29%, with Hillary down 8 points and Obama up 7 in a week's time.
CBSNEWS poll shows Obama 35%, Hillary 29% in New Hampshire.
Peter Wehner over at Contentions, posts the obit:
".....After she loses, Hillary Clinton will remain in the Senate, of course, and Bill Clinton will continue to make millions through his public speeches. They will not completely disappear from the national scene. But their days as a Democratic dynasty, and their center-stage role in American politics, are about to end."
(via PowerLine)
Is Hillary about done? No. She undoubtedly is a very polarizing person, and about as many dislike her as like her, but she has too much going for her to bow out at the first sign of trouble. I have to agree with Dick Morris (shudder!). His position is that she can withstand a few early primary losses because her strength lies in the larger states that vote later. For those that want this to be a quick process I can only tell you to get ready for one that is longer and more drawn out than recent elections have been.
What we will probably see is the Clintons going into full battle mode. The gloves will come off (pardon the metaphors), and we will begin to learn more about Obama than we really want to know. That is not all that bad. We actually know little about him.
This election year will give all of the pundits and press the opportunity to pontificate. But I don't think they are going to be able to stampede either party into naming a winner early. Democrats will surely make it into the Spring; Republicans may go all the way to the convention. It should be an interesting but frightening ride.
UPDATE: Riehl World View has similar thoughts:
"....The Clinton freight train rumbles on. If there's any real dirt, they'll chew, chew Obama up in the two weeks between NH and SC and we'll have a different race by Super Tuesday on February 5th......"
Go to the site.
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