What an election year! There have been many surprises, and I suspect there will be many more. In my 50 years of active politics, I have not seen anything quite like it.
The election that this one seems to resemble the most is that of 1960. Of course it is not the same, but there are a few comparisons that are interesting.
On the Democratic side we have a contest between an old time political hardball player (Hillary Clinton playing a similar role to LBJ) and a more youthful new generation guy who espouses change (Barack Obama playing JFK). Then we had contestants that were a generation apart, and the same is true now. Hillary was born in the Baby Boomer 40s, and Obama in the X Generation 60s.
Another similarity is that the campaign for the nomination will probably go down to the wire, and end up being contested in the convention.
I can remember following that 1960 Democratic Convention, rooting for Lyndon Johnson, knowing all the time how difficult it would be for him to win it. It was a great convention, chaired by Sam Rayburn, LBJ's good friend. But all of Johnson's power in the party came to naught as the Democrats sought a fresh face and nominated Kennedy. (Of course, the Kennedys proved themselves very capable of engaging in power politics as well.)
The electorate back then was split in much the same manner as now, and JFK won the general election in as close a race as that in 2000. Nixon did not file a lawsuit challenging the vote count in Chicago, saving the country the spectacle we saw in 2000.
McCain cannot really be compared to the Nixon of 1960, although both served in the House and Senate. Nixon got the nomination because he was the Vice President.
The primary campaigns are nothing like those in 1960. Of course, back then primaries were not that important. The fight was over convention delegates picked in "smoke filled rooms" more than in primaries.
The Democratic campaigns are going to be very interesting to watch. I have always felt that Hillary would win, but have been surprised at what Obama has accomplished. His fund raising has been phenomenal, beating everyone pretty badly. Now that Hillary is having to self finance her campaign, one must wonder how long she can keep it up. Obama has some wins coming. Will Hillary have enough to compete in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania? Good question.
My view is that Hillary will win Texas when the day comes, but Obama has good shots in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Look for a convention contest.
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