Recently I heard a song by this title sung by Merle Haggard, and it seemingly described the feelings of a lot of folks right now. Don't worry, it was first published in the Spring of 1982 in the midst of the recession caused when Paul Volcker of the Federal Reserve cut off the credit spigot that had caused accelerating inflation from the late 1960's through the 1970's.
Lyndon Johnson's War on Poverty and the War in Viet Nam had been financed with credit, and very loose monetary policies were followed by Nixon, Ford and Carter, and the Fed chairmen that served under them. This created double digit inflation and extremely high interest rates by the end of Carter's term. He appointed Volcker to solve the problem. He did, but at the cost of a serious downturn.
At the end of the recession, the good times started back as a result of tax cuts and more deficit spending under Reagan, but this was again briefly halted by a real estate bust and the failure of most savings and loan institutions around the country.
Volcker was not reappointed, and Greenspan replaced him as chairman of the Fed.
The good times started back, to be only briefly interrupted by a tightening of money just in time during George H. W. Bush's term to cause a short recession in the election year of 1992, when Clinton was elected.
During Clinton's two terms, the good times returned, and the party, which was based upon very easy credit, lasted until 2007. Then, the world ran out of credit.
A slump has ensued that we are still not recovering from. So how about the good times? Are they really over for good?
I say "No." There are plenty of good times left. To get there, however, there must be some pain.
We as a country, and indeed the whole world, are at the end of a long term credit cycle. These have happened before, and, given human nature, surely will again.
What has happened? Chris Martenson put it this way:
"Banks began lending money at a faster rate than the global economy grew, and we're now at the turning point where we simply have run out of new borrowers for the ever-growing debt the system has become addicted to."
Now the bill is coming due. When one tries to create prosperity with easy credit, which the world has done, it will always end with a serious contraction.
Prosperity has to be earned, not borrowed. We have borrowed to obtain prosperity, and now, having danced to the tune, it is time to pay the Piper.
The economic paradigm we have operated under in the world since Bretton Woods in 1944, and particularly since Nixon closed the gold window in 1973, was based upon easy credit and fiat currencies, particularly the dollar.
In spite of huge efforts by governments and central banks around the world, led by the US, that old paradigm is failing, and cannot be saved. They are literally creating trillions of dollars and Euros out of thin air trying to do so, but it won't work in the end. But it will make the world's currencies, including the dollar, worthless if they continue. It may already have.
That reminds me of another country song, by Willie Nelson: "Turn Out the Lights, the Party's Over." All we have to do is recognize it, and move on.
Now, how about the good times? We have to get over the funk we are in. It will be painful, but we must go back to sound money. I am not expert on that, but we had pretty sound money before 1913, and since then the dollar has become worth only a penny of its value during that year.
Perhaps we will see whether after the Great Depression and the current ongoing crisis, our government and our people have the courage and determination to put in place a more sound and sensible economic paradigm.
If we do, the good times will come back.
Afterword:
For those who like country music, here ate the sites for the two songs:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFHJ41ktt3Q
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsTAUs_h_uY
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Sunday, June 10, 2012
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Thoughts on a return to blogging
It has been a long and busy three weeks, and I have not been able to even gather thoughts in order to blog. Sorry.
There was some time to keep up with email, and to read some articles. Given what is happening in our world, there is a lot to blog about. I will try to do so with a bit more regularity than lately.
Looking about, one sees the United States, once respected, if disliked, has changed to being disrespected and still disliked.
All of that in a period of eight months.
This is because of the deliberate policies of our current government. It has sucked up to our enemies and offended and abandoned our friends. Intentionally.
Iran has just been given another pass, in spite of its threat. North Korea is ignored, to do whatever nuke development they wish.
Castro and Chavez to our south are being helped, rather than isolated, while Honduras and Colombia, our allies, are treated quite poorly.
The situation in Afghanistan is eroding, and the government is holding "meetings." There seems to be no sense of urgency, even though the President accorded Afghanistan important status when running for office.
Domestically, the economy is in the tank while the "stimulus" is spent to shore up supporters and arms of the Democratic Party. The big banking and financial institutions have been bailed out with nearly three trillion dollars of taxpayers' money, but the government entities refuse to account to the people for the money.
The majority party is trying to cram health "reform" down the throat of the 85% of the people who are satisfied with their health insurance, in order to make coverage available to an additional 11% of the people (and, of course, 12 million illegal aliens).
They are also trying to pass a "cap and trade" regime, which will enrich a few, but will constitute a huge energy tax on everyone else, even the poor. This is being done in a time of deep recession and increasing unemployment.
In the media, I notice that the New York Times has as the lead article a story about Senator John Ensign (R-Nev) and his affair, but there is not a mention anywhere of Charles Rangel (D-NY) and his series of felonies, nor of the bastard child of John Edwards, the Democratic presidential candidate, even though there is some here on Politico.
Enough.
A couple of weeks ago, as I sat out on my patio enjoying the evening with my puppy dog and an adult beverage, I had something of a premonition. Nothing specific at all, just a thought that something bad might happen. A friend that I told about it said he was having somewhat similar thoughts.
I think that when one considers the above, along with everything else, there is good reason to worry.
Perhaps that can be covered a bit in succeeding posts.
There was some time to keep up with email, and to read some articles. Given what is happening in our world, there is a lot to blog about. I will try to do so with a bit more regularity than lately.
Looking about, one sees the United States, once respected, if disliked, has changed to being disrespected and still disliked.
All of that in a period of eight months.
This is because of the deliberate policies of our current government. It has sucked up to our enemies and offended and abandoned our friends. Intentionally.
Iran has just been given another pass, in spite of its threat. North Korea is ignored, to do whatever nuke development they wish.
Castro and Chavez to our south are being helped, rather than isolated, while Honduras and Colombia, our allies, are treated quite poorly.
The situation in Afghanistan is eroding, and the government is holding "meetings." There seems to be no sense of urgency, even though the President accorded Afghanistan important status when running for office.
Domestically, the economy is in the tank while the "stimulus" is spent to shore up supporters and arms of the Democratic Party. The big banking and financial institutions have been bailed out with nearly three trillion dollars of taxpayers' money, but the government entities refuse to account to the people for the money.
The majority party is trying to cram health "reform" down the throat of the 85% of the people who are satisfied with their health insurance, in order to make coverage available to an additional 11% of the people (and, of course, 12 million illegal aliens).
They are also trying to pass a "cap and trade" regime, which will enrich a few, but will constitute a huge energy tax on everyone else, even the poor. This is being done in a time of deep recession and increasing unemployment.
In the media, I notice that the New York Times has as the lead article a story about Senator John Ensign (R-Nev) and his affair, but there is not a mention anywhere of Charles Rangel (D-NY) and his series of felonies, nor of the bastard child of John Edwards, the Democratic presidential candidate, even though there is some here on Politico.
Enough.
A couple of weeks ago, as I sat out on my patio enjoying the evening with my puppy dog and an adult beverage, I had something of a premonition. Nothing specific at all, just a thought that something bad might happen. A friend that I told about it said he was having somewhat similar thoughts.
I think that when one considers the above, along with everything else, there is good reason to worry.
Perhaps that can be covered a bit in succeeding posts.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
The Transformation of America
William Katz who blogs at Urgent Agenda has a bit about something written by Frank Miele, the managing editor of a small Montana newpaper, The Daily Inter Lake.
The commentary is about Obama and Abraham Lincoln, for whom Obama has shown a great deal of admiration.
Mr. Katz blogs about wisdom and genius and how it can be confused. And warns about Obama relying on genius as opposed to wisdom. Its good, and you should go there and read it.
But Miele's commentary is much more than that.
He quotes Obama:
"Let us transform this nation," Obama said in his 2007 announcement address. "Let us be the generation that reshapes our economy... And as our economy changes, let's be the generation that ensures our nation's workers are sharing in our prosperity.... Let's be the generation that ends poverty in America.... Let's be the generation that finally tackles our health care crisis... Let's be the generation that finally frees America from the tyranny of oil... Let's be the generation that makes future generations proud of what we did here."
Miele says we should not now be surprised at what Obama is doing. He told us well in advance.
Obama also talked about greatly transforming our economy long before the economy went into the tank. When he said that, the economy was humming along.
From the very beginning, he has had the notion of doing away with our old economic system, capitalism, and substituting.........what?
Given that Obama was raised in a Marxist leaning household and has an awful lot of friends who are extremely radical, one can figure out where he wants to take us pretty easily.
Our intrepid editor goes on to say:
"Thus, to the extent that he is indeed the "towering genius' his admirers perceive, President Obama may quote Lincoln, but he certainly doesn't want to be him. He wants not to preserve the work of presidents past, but to "transform" the nation, to "take up the unfinished business of perfecting our union, and building a better America," as he said in Springfield...."
This is right on point. What Obama wants to do is not preserve our nation as it has been, but to transform it into something else. And he is busy trying to do just that.
Miele further states:
"Now, Abraham Lincoln was not a prophet –– just a very wise man. His words provide food for thought, but should not themselves be considered an indictment of any individual. Nonetheless, for those of us who are concerned that Barack Obama means exactly what he says, and does indeed intend to "transform" the nation, they are one more opportunity to make a plea for "preservation" of the "temple of liberty" instead."
We still have a chance to stop this, but people must wake up to what is happening. Congress cannot be trusted to do it. For crying out loud, they spent nearly a trillion dollars without reading the bill, and passed the "cap and trade" bill in the House with nobody having read it as well.
We need a political revolution in this country to counter the one that Obama and the left is trying to cram down our throats. Unfortunately, neither of our political parties is up to the task.
Will we all wake up?........... In time?
Who will lead the revolution? Is anybody out there?
The commentary is about Obama and Abraham Lincoln, for whom Obama has shown a great deal of admiration.
Mr. Katz blogs about wisdom and genius and how it can be confused. And warns about Obama relying on genius as opposed to wisdom. Its good, and you should go there and read it.
But Miele's commentary is much more than that.
He quotes Obama:
"Let us transform this nation," Obama said in his 2007 announcement address. "Let us be the generation that reshapes our economy... And as our economy changes, let's be the generation that ensures our nation's workers are sharing in our prosperity.... Let's be the generation that ends poverty in America.... Let's be the generation that finally tackles our health care crisis... Let's be the generation that finally frees America from the tyranny of oil... Let's be the generation that makes future generations proud of what we did here."
Miele says we should not now be surprised at what Obama is doing. He told us well in advance.
Obama also talked about greatly transforming our economy long before the economy went into the tank. When he said that, the economy was humming along.
From the very beginning, he has had the notion of doing away with our old economic system, capitalism, and substituting.........what?
Given that Obama was raised in a Marxist leaning household and has an awful lot of friends who are extremely radical, one can figure out where he wants to take us pretty easily.
Our intrepid editor goes on to say:
"Thus, to the extent that he is indeed the "towering genius' his admirers perceive, President Obama may quote Lincoln, but he certainly doesn't want to be him. He wants not to preserve the work of presidents past, but to "transform" the nation, to "take up the unfinished business of perfecting our union, and building a better America," as he said in Springfield...."
This is right on point. What Obama wants to do is not preserve our nation as it has been, but to transform it into something else. And he is busy trying to do just that.
Miele further states:
"Now, Abraham Lincoln was not a prophet –– just a very wise man. His words provide food for thought, but should not themselves be considered an indictment of any individual. Nonetheless, for those of us who are concerned that Barack Obama means exactly what he says, and does indeed intend to "transform" the nation, they are one more opportunity to make a plea for "preservation" of the "temple of liberty" instead."
We still have a chance to stop this, but people must wake up to what is happening. Congress cannot be trusted to do it. For crying out loud, they spent nearly a trillion dollars without reading the bill, and passed the "cap and trade" bill in the House with nobody having read it as well.
We need a political revolution in this country to counter the one that Obama and the left is trying to cram down our throats. Unfortunately, neither of our political parties is up to the task.
Will we all wake up?........... In time?
Who will lead the revolution? Is anybody out there?
The War Against the Producers
The summer doldrums are here. News is slow, but there are some good blogs out there.
Victor Davis Hanson has an excellent piece over at Pajamas Media. I won't try to blog about it. Its all too good to break down. Its called The War Against the Producers.
The subtitle at Pajamas asks the good question:
"How can rewarding unproductive areas of the economy and punishing the engines of the economy possibly work?"
Hanson proceeds to answer that question and others. Perhaps the best quote from the artice is:
"Final observations: Obama brilliantly conflated the Wall Street class with the upper-tier of Main Street in Animal Farm fashion: the former gets lectured, but stays enriched through bailouts; the latter takes both the moral hit for the former’s crimes and greed and the actual hit in higher taxes.
(Nota bene: the new Democrats, in Prince Charles fashion, like the taste and culture of the hyper-rich, who care little about taxes, are sensitive behind their ramparts to the less well off, and know high-culture (think Streisand, Gates, Soros, the Georgetown/Hollwood/Silicon Valley, Upper East Side, Cambridge, Mass, set). These aristoi despise the wheeler-dealer, always on the move, uppity, wanna-get-rich scrambler that is desperately trying to get his get kid through Public U, and add a wing on his gross MacMansion, while towing his outboard up to the lake for five hours of water-skiing, without an opera, symphony, or NPR analysis on the radio)."
This is a very good article, is very thoughtful, and needs to be read in its entirety. Go here to do so.
Victor Davis Hanson has an excellent piece over at Pajamas Media. I won't try to blog about it. Its all too good to break down. Its called The War Against the Producers.
The subtitle at Pajamas asks the good question:
"How can rewarding unproductive areas of the economy and punishing the engines of the economy possibly work?"
Hanson proceeds to answer that question and others. Perhaps the best quote from the artice is:
"Final observations: Obama brilliantly conflated the Wall Street class with the upper-tier of Main Street in Animal Farm fashion: the former gets lectured, but stays enriched through bailouts; the latter takes both the moral hit for the former’s crimes and greed and the actual hit in higher taxes.
(Nota bene: the new Democrats, in Prince Charles fashion, like the taste and culture of the hyper-rich, who care little about taxes, are sensitive behind their ramparts to the less well off, and know high-culture (think Streisand, Gates, Soros, the Georgetown/Hollwood/Silicon Valley, Upper East Side, Cambridge, Mass, set). These aristoi despise the wheeler-dealer, always on the move, uppity, wanna-get-rich scrambler that is desperately trying to get his get kid through Public U, and add a wing on his gross MacMansion, while towing his outboard up to the lake for five hours of water-skiing, without an opera, symphony, or NPR analysis on the radio)."
This is a very good article, is very thoughtful, and needs to be read in its entirety. Go here to do so.
Friday, July 10, 2009
Robert Reich almost gets it right
I was cruising along on a slow news day, and came across this post by Robert Reich over on TPM Muckraker. Being a glutton for punishment, I undertook to read it.
To my surprise, he sounded very much like he agreed with my thoughts on the Recession.
We aren't going to have a V shaped recovery or a U shaped one....people are comparing to the wrong prior recessions. This one is different.
Our economy is 70% consumers, and most of them are out of money, have little or no credit, and no home equity to borrow against.
So far, so good. This is all true.
He goes on:
"Eventually consumers will replace cars and appliances and other stuff that wears out, but a recovery can't be built on replacements. Don't expect businesses to invest much more without lots of consumers hankering after lots of new stuff. And don't rely on exports. The global economy is contracting."
Still right so far except for China and India. Then we get to this:
"...This economy can't get back on track because the track we were on for years -- featuring flat or declining median wages, mounting consumer debt, and widening insecurity,..................."
Wow!. Its hard to believe. This liberal guy is right on track. I am thinking by now that he will finish up with a plan.
Sorry, no plan.
He finishes the above quote this way:
"........not to mention increasing carbon in the atmosphere -- simply cannot be sustained."
Now tell me what increasing carbon in the atmosphere did to cause our economic difficulties.
Nothing, absolutely nothing.
But it certainly will have something to do with the recovery, or the lack thereof.
What the dang fool is proposing apparently, is that we can't start the new economy, which we need, without carbon controls, which is the fastest way known to destroy what economy is left.
He says there is more to come on the issue of the new economy, I asssume without carbon.
I can hardly wait
The left will never learn.
To my surprise, he sounded very much like he agreed with my thoughts on the Recession.
We aren't going to have a V shaped recovery or a U shaped one....people are comparing to the wrong prior recessions. This one is different.
Our economy is 70% consumers, and most of them are out of money, have little or no credit, and no home equity to borrow against.
So far, so good. This is all true.
He goes on:
"Eventually consumers will replace cars and appliances and other stuff that wears out, but a recovery can't be built on replacements. Don't expect businesses to invest much more without lots of consumers hankering after lots of new stuff. And don't rely on exports. The global economy is contracting."
Still right so far except for China and India. Then we get to this:
"...This economy can't get back on track because the track we were on for years -- featuring flat or declining median wages, mounting consumer debt, and widening insecurity,..................."
Wow!. Its hard to believe. This liberal guy is right on track. I am thinking by now that he will finish up with a plan.
Sorry, no plan.
He finishes the above quote this way:
"........not to mention increasing carbon in the atmosphere -- simply cannot be sustained."
Now tell me what increasing carbon in the atmosphere did to cause our economic difficulties.
Nothing, absolutely nothing.
But it certainly will have something to do with the recovery, or the lack thereof.
What the dang fool is proposing apparently, is that we can't start the new economy, which we need, without carbon controls, which is the fastest way known to destroy what economy is left.
He says there is more to come on the issue of the new economy, I asssume without carbon.
I can hardly wait
The left will never learn.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Stimulus plan
Shawn Ritenour over at the Ludwig von Mises Institute has the best analysis of the stimulus and its effects that I have seen. The stimulus I am taling about is the one that was rushed through in January without anyone having read it and that has failed miserably to stimulate the economy as promised.
There is much more in the article, but this sums it up perfectly:
"From an economic perspective, Obama's stimulus plan is equivalent to a giant welfare scheme. Instead of the money going to lower income Americans, however, it is meant to go to municipal bureaucrats of various stripes. Instead of productive American citizens determining what to do with their own scarce resources, the state is stepping in and dictating how they will be used. Consequently, such spending is essentially government consumption, which is what vulgar Keynesians think we need now more than ever. Such economists are shocked — shocked! — to find out that Americans are now saving any increases in income instead of blowing it on even more consumer goods. Not to worry, however. If private citizens do not consume enough for official tastes, the government always can.
Certainly we can expect that when the government spends a trillion dollars this will provide a positive statistical boost to GDP, if for no other reason that government spending makes up a significant portion of GDP. Where, however, does the state get the money to spend? Ah, as Hamlet might say, there's the rub. There are only three ways the government can obtain funds to throw at all their shovel-ready projects and all three leave in their wake negative economic consequences."
Read the whole thing.
There is much more in the article, but this sums it up perfectly:
"From an economic perspective, Obama's stimulus plan is equivalent to a giant welfare scheme. Instead of the money going to lower income Americans, however, it is meant to go to municipal bureaucrats of various stripes. Instead of productive American citizens determining what to do with their own scarce resources, the state is stepping in and dictating how they will be used. Consequently, such spending is essentially government consumption, which is what vulgar Keynesians think we need now more than ever. Such economists are shocked — shocked! — to find out that Americans are now saving any increases in income instead of blowing it on even more consumer goods. Not to worry, however. If private citizens do not consume enough for official tastes, the government always can.
Certainly we can expect that when the government spends a trillion dollars this will provide a positive statistical boost to GDP, if for no other reason that government spending makes up a significant portion of GDP. Where, however, does the state get the money to spend? Ah, as Hamlet might say, there's the rub. There are only three ways the government can obtain funds to throw at all their shovel-ready projects and all three leave in their wake negative economic consequences."
Read the whole thing.
Sunday, July 5, 2009
July 5, 2009
Sarah Palin
It seems the whole world is talking about Sarah Palin, and her resignation as Governor of Alaska.
What is she going to do? Is she still running for President? Is she leaving politics? Did she commit political suicide, or is it a smart tactic? Why in the world would she do that?
Some of those questions are impossible to answer....only she and time will be able to do that. The answer to the last question above may be easier.
Ever since she exploded upon the national scene with her appointment as McCain's VP, the liberals and the press (sorry for the redundancy) have scrutinized her every move and every word, all quite critically. They have even done the same to her family. In my seventy years, I have never seen anything quite like it.
Why would they hate her so? One could easily conclude that the have that visceral anti-Palin feeling because she scares them.
She is different from them. She is not an elite like they are. She is pretty much a down home ordinary type of lady who happened to be bright enough to get herself elected Governor of her state. She is not afraid to take on the left, but had a good record of bi-partisanship in Alaska before the destruction began in earnest.
Her speech at the GOP Convention electrified the base of the party, something that neither John McCain nor any of the other candidates could do. She was not up on the national issues, and was not really ready for prime time, but she struck a real chord with the people who were dissatisfied with the nominee and all of the other choices. This is probably what frightened the left.
So the left set out to destroy her. They have done a lot of damage to her and her family. Much of what they did has been beyond the pale. We will see if that ever comes back to haunt them.
Will she be back? I suspect so. A friend pointed out that in 2020 she will only be 52. That is prime age for national leaders.
Will she come back prepared? We will see.
She is going to have to spend some time in the political wilderness, study, learn, get around and meet people, and build a base in the electorate.
Perhaps with the resignation, the media will now go elsewhere for a while.
The South Plainsman
David Boaz talks about how our current politicians from both political powers misuse quotes and misstate beliefs of the Founders of our country for their own purposes in The Politicians and the Founders over at Cato. Both Obama and McCain were guilty of this in their radio broadcasts this weekend. His conclusion after having given examples:
"....Maybe each week there should be three national radio broadcasts: one from the incumbent president, one from the other big-government party, and one reflecting the views of the Founders."
Read it all.
The South Plainsman
John Hinderaker over at Powerline quotes Mark Steyn who is discussing horrors of the British medical system:
"......When we quote stories like these at NRO, we get a lot of e-mail saying these are just "anecdotes". And yes, if you look on yourself as being part of a government health system of millions of people, getting a bedsore and dying in hideous pain is no big deal in the scheme of things. But I look on myself as being part of the Mark Steyn health system. So if I get a bedsore and die, as far as I'm concerned, that's a 100% systemic failure. The difference between government health care and a private system is that, under the latter, you're free to say, "This dump's filthy. I'm going to the state-of-the-art joint five miles up the road." You may have to get out your checkbook, but ultimately the decisions are yours.
In a government system, the decisions are the bureaucrats', and that's that. My father is currently ill, and the health "system" is doing its best to ensure it's fatal. When an ambulance has to be called, they take him to a different hospital according to the determinations of the bed-availability bureaucrats and which facility hasn't had to be quarantined for an infection outbreak. At the first hospital, he picked up C Difficile. At the second, MRSA. At the third, like the lady above, he got septicaemia. He's lying there now, enjoying the socialized health care jackpot - C Diff, MRSA, septicaemia. None of these ailments are what he went in to be treated for. They were given to him by the medical system......"
The discussion was about a woman who went to the hospital in Britain and died from a bedsore which was ignored by the staff.
Read the whole thing here.
The South Plainsman
Thought for the day:
"Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on to them to do the same." Ronald Reagan
The South Plainsman
Now Biden chimes in: the US will not stand in the way of an Israel attack on Iran. Is it the official word? Or is he just running his mouth again with his brain disengaged? How would we know?
The New York Times has the story, and an editorial comment within the story:
"....Mr. Biden’s comments came at a particularly sensitive time, amid the continuing tumult over the disputed Iranian elections, and seemed to risk handing a besieged President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a new tool with which to fan nationalist sentiments in Iran....."
A policy change for the Obama administration? Don't bet on it.
The South Plainsman
David Warren, who writes for the Ottawa Citizen hits the nail on the head when discussing affairs in the United States. Today he says we are crazy, and getting crazier for trying to solve problems in the economy which were caused by too much debt by adding much more debt. And , he says, even crazier, at the same time we are socializing medicine at great cost and initiating "cap and trade" law that will further ruin the economy. Crazy, indeed.
Read the whole thing. [link is fixed now]
The South Plainsman
The Saudis will do what we won't. The Times has the story. The Saudis will permit the Israelis to fly over Saudi Arabia to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. The US won't let them use the somewhat more direct route over Iraq.
The South Plainsman
It seems the whole world is talking about Sarah Palin, and her resignation as Governor of Alaska.
What is she going to do? Is she still running for President? Is she leaving politics? Did she commit political suicide, or is it a smart tactic? Why in the world would she do that?
Some of those questions are impossible to answer....only she and time will be able to do that. The answer to the last question above may be easier.
Ever since she exploded upon the national scene with her appointment as McCain's VP, the liberals and the press (sorry for the redundancy) have scrutinized her every move and every word, all quite critically. They have even done the same to her family. In my seventy years, I have never seen anything quite like it.
Why would they hate her so? One could easily conclude that the have that visceral anti-Palin feeling because she scares them.
She is different from them. She is not an elite like they are. She is pretty much a down home ordinary type of lady who happened to be bright enough to get herself elected Governor of her state. She is not afraid to take on the left, but had a good record of bi-partisanship in Alaska before the destruction began in earnest.
Her speech at the GOP Convention electrified the base of the party, something that neither John McCain nor any of the other candidates could do. She was not up on the national issues, and was not really ready for prime time, but she struck a real chord with the people who were dissatisfied with the nominee and all of the other choices. This is probably what frightened the left.
So the left set out to destroy her. They have done a lot of damage to her and her family. Much of what they did has been beyond the pale. We will see if that ever comes back to haunt them.
Will she be back? I suspect so. A friend pointed out that in 2020 she will only be 52. That is prime age for national leaders.
Will she come back prepared? We will see.
She is going to have to spend some time in the political wilderness, study, learn, get around and meet people, and build a base in the electorate.
Perhaps with the resignation, the media will now go elsewhere for a while.
The South Plainsman
David Boaz talks about how our current politicians from both political powers misuse quotes and misstate beliefs of the Founders of our country for their own purposes in The Politicians and the Founders over at Cato. Both Obama and McCain were guilty of this in their radio broadcasts this weekend. His conclusion after having given examples:
"....Maybe each week there should be three national radio broadcasts: one from the incumbent president, one from the other big-government party, and one reflecting the views of the Founders."
Read it all.
The South Plainsman
John Hinderaker over at Powerline quotes Mark Steyn who is discussing horrors of the British medical system:
"......When we quote stories like these at NRO, we get a lot of e-mail saying these are just "anecdotes". And yes, if you look on yourself as being part of a government health system of millions of people, getting a bedsore and dying in hideous pain is no big deal in the scheme of things. But I look on myself as being part of the Mark Steyn health system. So if I get a bedsore and die, as far as I'm concerned, that's a 100% systemic failure. The difference between government health care and a private system is that, under the latter, you're free to say, "This dump's filthy. I'm going to the state-of-the-art joint five miles up the road." You may have to get out your checkbook, but ultimately the decisions are yours.
In a government system, the decisions are the bureaucrats', and that's that. My father is currently ill, and the health "system" is doing its best to ensure it's fatal. When an ambulance has to be called, they take him to a different hospital according to the determinations of the bed-availability bureaucrats and which facility hasn't had to be quarantined for an infection outbreak. At the first hospital, he picked up C Difficile. At the second, MRSA. At the third, like the lady above, he got septicaemia. He's lying there now, enjoying the socialized health care jackpot - C Diff, MRSA, septicaemia. None of these ailments are what he went in to be treated for. They were given to him by the medical system......"
The discussion was about a woman who went to the hospital in Britain and died from a bedsore which was ignored by the staff.
Read the whole thing here.
The South Plainsman
Thought for the day:
"Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on to them to do the same." Ronald Reagan
The South Plainsman
Now Biden chimes in: the US will not stand in the way of an Israel attack on Iran. Is it the official word? Or is he just running his mouth again with his brain disengaged? How would we know?
The New York Times has the story, and an editorial comment within the story:
"....Mr. Biden’s comments came at a particularly sensitive time, amid the continuing tumult over the disputed Iranian elections, and seemed to risk handing a besieged President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a new tool with which to fan nationalist sentiments in Iran....."
A policy change for the Obama administration? Don't bet on it.
The South Plainsman
David Warren, who writes for the Ottawa Citizen hits the nail on the head when discussing affairs in the United States. Today he says we are crazy, and getting crazier for trying to solve problems in the economy which were caused by too much debt by adding much more debt. And , he says, even crazier, at the same time we are socializing medicine at great cost and initiating "cap and trade" law that will further ruin the economy. Crazy, indeed.
Read the whole thing. [link is fixed now]
The South Plainsman
The Saudis will do what we won't. The Times has the story. The Saudis will permit the Israelis to fly over Saudi Arabia to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. The US won't let them use the somewhat more direct route over Iraq.
The South Plainsman
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Bills coming due
It is the New Year, and everyone has been reviewing the old year. There are a lot of different views, some good, some bad. Perhaps the one I like the best was written by Victor Davis Hanson, entitled 2007The Bills That Came Due. He noted that everything comes at a price, and went through a number of things that brought that home to us. I recommend that you follow the link and read the whole article.
This post, however, is not about the past, but the future. What bills are going to come due this year?
THE CAPITAL MARKETS
This problem really started coming home to roost last year, but the bill will possibly come this year. Years (since the early 1990's) of freewheeling lending, then dividing pieces of each debt up into pieces (derivatives), getting greedy rating agencies to overrate the debt issues, and then selling them to the public and to each other, all of it subject to little or no regulation, has gotten the worlds financial institutions and capital markets in a bind. Once the sub-prime mortgages started losing value, it was discovered that there was really no easy way to put any value on a lot of this paper that was issued. This has led to a serious impairment of the capital of most of our large financial institutions, in the US and worldwide. The central banks have added huge amounts of new reserves (created out of thin air) to the markets, and the financial institutions and the banks have been writing down their reserves and selling stock to raise new capital. So far no panic has set in. But it is only the beginning. When one dances to the music, one must pay the Piper. This may well be the year that the Piper demands payment. If so....well, it won't be pretty.
OIL AND ENERGY
Oil and energy prices will fluctuate, with an upward bias, unless the capital markets crash and cause a recession worldwide. The United States and China, along with Europe, will compete for ever more scarce petroleum this coming year, and well into the future. The inability of the United States to agree upon reasonable efforts to adopt alternatives to petroleum will make it extremely vulnerable to cut offs of its supplies from abroad. As China races to build a "blue ocean" navy which could interdict our supply someday, we twiddle our thumbs and do little but subsidize the use of food to power our cars. This enriches corporate farmers and politicians at taxpayers' expense, but does nothing to address the energy problem. A new policy encouraging research and development of alternatives including nuclear is imperative. Don't anyone hold his or her breath.
IMMIGRATION
We are beginning to see some effects of the current immigration policy. The crackdown, though insufficient to secure the borders, is having some effect. However, the politicians are playing games with us all. They authorized the border fences, but didn't appropriate the funds to do it right. There still are not enough new Border Patrolmen to do the job. Of course, what we need is a new immigration law, but there is no consensus on how existing illegal immigrants already here should be treated. The whole system is broken, and needs to be fixed. Don't hold your breath on this one, either.
POLITICS
This is where I suspect things may really get interesting. There are at least two aspects to the upcoming elections that need to be looked at. First is the methodology of the nominating process, and the other is the public's reactions to the candidates and the political parties.
The last few election cycles we have seen the winners in Iowa and New Hampshire get anointed by the media as frontrunners, and the momentum generated by that have led to their nominations. Those early events have had a far larger effect on the process than deserved, particularly since neither state is really very representative of the whole.
Ronald A. Cass has a piece out today that discusses this phenomenum over at RealClearPolitics, entitled Is This Any Way to Pick a President? Madison's Nightmare. This is a good read that explains the problem.
This year, I get the sense that this is not going to be the case. Oh, the media will try to spin these things one way or another, but it looks like we may have a longer, harder process than usual. We need it.
One reason we need a longer process before the nominations are sewed up is that we don't really know much about most of the candidates, in spite of the length of the race so far. All we get is soundbites from the media. Those that spend a lot of time on it and don't just rely on the mainstream media for the sound bites they choose for us may know more about some of the candidates, but none of us knows enough. Bill Katz has a post over at Powerline that says it all. He says there is a distance between the candidates and the public that prevents the public from really getting to know about them, and gives three reasons:
".....First, the TV myth. Television, we're told, brings us closer to events. No, it doesn't. It brings us closer to the coverage of events, and the staging of events. But the very staging of something for TV separates us from the candidate. That, of course, is the purpose – to create illusion, not reality......"
"....The second reason for the distance between public and candidate is a routine demeaning of the American voter. Voters, we're told, are impatient, they won't listen, they're not interested, so let's reduce everything to sound bites.........."
"....The third reason for the distance, and the most important, in my view, is that the concept of "knowing" the candidates has changed, in part because the selection process has changed...."
Go there and read the whole thing.
My prediction is that the public won't be happy this year with the rush to nomination. Both of these races may go to the conventions. It will be interesting to see.
As for the candidates, well, my thought is that the public isn't really attracted to any of them. Oh, sure, each has his or her supporters, but looking at the overall public reaction leaves me thinking that "none of the above" might win it all this year if that were on the ballot. This probably ties in with what Katz had to say....we just don't know that much about most of the candidates. Perhaps we know too much about Hillary. Who knows?
What is very clear is that after months of soundbite campaigning and several meaningless "debates" we are still in the dark about what the candidates really think about the issues.
What seems to have occurred is that the general public has lost it's trust of the government, the politicians and the media. We know about the spinning of soundbites and the "gotcha" journalism. We would like to hear some real debate on the real issues, and not canned responses to soft and non-threatening questions.
A lot of people have a justifiable feeling of unease about the direction the country is taking. There are some serious threats out there, and our government does not seem to be responding well to what is occurring. I think we would all like to hear the candidates talk honestly to us about those things. Instead, we are only getting soundbites and canned BS.
So, who is going to win when its all said and done? There is no way to tell. Two of the most interesting candidates, in terms of how they are performing, are Obama and Ron Paul. These guys have virtually nothing in common, but Obama seems to have gotten the lead in the Democratic race, and Paul certainly has raised a huge amount of money, although he doesn't show in the polls that well. I think the one thing they do have in common is that they are different from the usual candidates. Is their showing a reflection of a public dissatisfaction with the "same old politics?" Will the public surprise us when the voting begins? Stay tuned.
And then there is Fred Thompson. His campaign is certainly non-traditional, and I think that is intentional. What is his plan, if any? Will it work? At least he has released detailed position papers, but, of course, the media has not covered them....no "soundbites" there. We will just have to see.
The rest seem to be going about things the same old way. The polls ebb and flow. Nobody can hold a lead. Personal attacks seem to be escalating. That won't work this time.
And then there is the strong possibility of a third (and fourth?) party. Mayor Bloomberg seems to be positioning himself for a run. If he does, who will it hurt? Will Ron Paul run as a Libertarian? It is going to be interesting, and scary.
One thing is for sure. We will have to pay the bill for whom we choose this year when it comes due. A mistake may be very costly.
This post, however, is not about the past, but the future. What bills are going to come due this year?
THE CAPITAL MARKETS
This problem really started coming home to roost last year, but the bill will possibly come this year. Years (since the early 1990's) of freewheeling lending, then dividing pieces of each debt up into pieces (derivatives), getting greedy rating agencies to overrate the debt issues, and then selling them to the public and to each other, all of it subject to little or no regulation, has gotten the worlds financial institutions and capital markets in a bind. Once the sub-prime mortgages started losing value, it was discovered that there was really no easy way to put any value on a lot of this paper that was issued. This has led to a serious impairment of the capital of most of our large financial institutions, in the US and worldwide. The central banks have added huge amounts of new reserves (created out of thin air) to the markets, and the financial institutions and the banks have been writing down their reserves and selling stock to raise new capital. So far no panic has set in. But it is only the beginning. When one dances to the music, one must pay the Piper. This may well be the year that the Piper demands payment. If so....well, it won't be pretty.
OIL AND ENERGY
Oil and energy prices will fluctuate, with an upward bias, unless the capital markets crash and cause a recession worldwide. The United States and China, along with Europe, will compete for ever more scarce petroleum this coming year, and well into the future. The inability of the United States to agree upon reasonable efforts to adopt alternatives to petroleum will make it extremely vulnerable to cut offs of its supplies from abroad. As China races to build a "blue ocean" navy which could interdict our supply someday, we twiddle our thumbs and do little but subsidize the use of food to power our cars. This enriches corporate farmers and politicians at taxpayers' expense, but does nothing to address the energy problem. A new policy encouraging research and development of alternatives including nuclear is imperative. Don't anyone hold his or her breath.
IMMIGRATION
We are beginning to see some effects of the current immigration policy. The crackdown, though insufficient to secure the borders, is having some effect. However, the politicians are playing games with us all. They authorized the border fences, but didn't appropriate the funds to do it right. There still are not enough new Border Patrolmen to do the job. Of course, what we need is a new immigration law, but there is no consensus on how existing illegal immigrants already here should be treated. The whole system is broken, and needs to be fixed. Don't hold your breath on this one, either.
POLITICS
This is where I suspect things may really get interesting. There are at least two aspects to the upcoming elections that need to be looked at. First is the methodology of the nominating process, and the other is the public's reactions to the candidates and the political parties.
The last few election cycles we have seen the winners in Iowa and New Hampshire get anointed by the media as frontrunners, and the momentum generated by that have led to their nominations. Those early events have had a far larger effect on the process than deserved, particularly since neither state is really very representative of the whole.
Ronald A. Cass has a piece out today that discusses this phenomenum over at RealClearPolitics, entitled Is This Any Way to Pick a President? Madison's Nightmare. This is a good read that explains the problem.
This year, I get the sense that this is not going to be the case. Oh, the media will try to spin these things one way or another, but it looks like we may have a longer, harder process than usual. We need it.
One reason we need a longer process before the nominations are sewed up is that we don't really know much about most of the candidates, in spite of the length of the race so far. All we get is soundbites from the media. Those that spend a lot of time on it and don't just rely on the mainstream media for the sound bites they choose for us may know more about some of the candidates, but none of us knows enough. Bill Katz has a post over at Powerline that says it all. He says there is a distance between the candidates and the public that prevents the public from really getting to know about them, and gives three reasons:
".....First, the TV myth. Television, we're told, brings us closer to events. No, it doesn't. It brings us closer to the coverage of events, and the staging of events. But the very staging of something for TV separates us from the candidate. That, of course, is the purpose – to create illusion, not reality......"
"....The second reason for the distance between public and candidate is a routine demeaning of the American voter. Voters, we're told, are impatient, they won't listen, they're not interested, so let's reduce everything to sound bites.........."
"....The third reason for the distance, and the most important, in my view, is that the concept of "knowing" the candidates has changed, in part because the selection process has changed...."
Go there and read the whole thing.
My prediction is that the public won't be happy this year with the rush to nomination. Both of these races may go to the conventions. It will be interesting to see.
As for the candidates, well, my thought is that the public isn't really attracted to any of them. Oh, sure, each has his or her supporters, but looking at the overall public reaction leaves me thinking that "none of the above" might win it all this year if that were on the ballot. This probably ties in with what Katz had to say....we just don't know that much about most of the candidates. Perhaps we know too much about Hillary. Who knows?
What is very clear is that after months of soundbite campaigning and several meaningless "debates" we are still in the dark about what the candidates really think about the issues.
What seems to have occurred is that the general public has lost it's trust of the government, the politicians and the media. We know about the spinning of soundbites and the "gotcha" journalism. We would like to hear some real debate on the real issues, and not canned responses to soft and non-threatening questions.
A lot of people have a justifiable feeling of unease about the direction the country is taking. There are some serious threats out there, and our government does not seem to be responding well to what is occurring. I think we would all like to hear the candidates talk honestly to us about those things. Instead, we are only getting soundbites and canned BS.
So, who is going to win when its all said and done? There is no way to tell. Two of the most interesting candidates, in terms of how they are performing, are Obama and Ron Paul. These guys have virtually nothing in common, but Obama seems to have gotten the lead in the Democratic race, and Paul certainly has raised a huge amount of money, although he doesn't show in the polls that well. I think the one thing they do have in common is that they are different from the usual candidates. Is their showing a reflection of a public dissatisfaction with the "same old politics?" Will the public surprise us when the voting begins? Stay tuned.
And then there is Fred Thompson. His campaign is certainly non-traditional, and I think that is intentional. What is his plan, if any? Will it work? At least he has released detailed position papers, but, of course, the media has not covered them....no "soundbites" there. We will just have to see.
The rest seem to be going about things the same old way. The polls ebb and flow. Nobody can hold a lead. Personal attacks seem to be escalating. That won't work this time.
And then there is the strong possibility of a third (and fourth?) party. Mayor Bloomberg seems to be positioning himself for a run. If he does, who will it hurt? Will Ron Paul run as a Libertarian? It is going to be interesting, and scary.
One thing is for sure. We will have to pay the bill for whom we choose this year when it comes due. A mistake may be very costly.
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